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Climate change and flood risk in European cities
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Increased flooding is likely to be one of the most serious effects from climate change in Europe over coming decades. Some of the conditions which may contribute to urban flooding are highlighted in an Eye on Earth map from the European Environment Agency (EEA).
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News
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Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation
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Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.
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Data and maps
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Maps and graphs
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Precipitation versus agricultural demand patterns
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Monthly agricultural water demand (in%) of total versus monthly rainfall (in% of yearly total)
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Data and maps
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Maps and graphs
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Mean precipitation (CLIM 002) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Annual precipitation trends since 1950 show an increase by up to 70 mm per decade in north-eastern and north-western Europe and a decrease by up to 70 mm in some parts of southern Europe.
Seasonal precipitation trends show an increase in winter precipitation in northern Europe and a decrease in southern Europe, albeit with large interannual variations.
The direction of future precipitation changes is simulated robustly in many parts of central and western Europe across all seasons. However, many parts of Europe, such as eastern and southern Europe, lack model consensus on the direction of change.
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Data and maps
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Indicators
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Mean precipitation
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Precipitation extremes (CLIM 004) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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There are no widespread significant trends in either the number of consecutive dry or wet days across Europe.
Heavy precipitation events are likely to become more frequent in most parts of Europe. The changes are strongest in Scandinavia in winter and in northern and eastern central Europe in summer.
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Data and maps
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Indicators
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Precipitation extremes
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Projected changes in 20-year maximum precipitation in summer and winter
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Projected changes in 20-year maximum daily precipitation in summer (left) and winter (right) from 1961–1990 to 2071–2100 based on the ensemble mean using a regional climate model (RCM) nested in 6 general circulation model (GCMs). Changes that approximately lie outside of ± 10 % for the ensemble average are significant at the 10 % significance level.
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Data and maps
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Maps and graphs
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Trends in consecutive dry days and consecutive wet days
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High confidence in a long-term trend is shown by a black dot (if the 5th to 95th percentile slopes are of the same sign). Boxes which have a thick outline contain at least three stations. Area averaged annual time series of percentage changes and
trend lines are shown below each map for one area in northern Europe (blue line, 5.6 to 16.9 °E and 56.2 to 66.2 °N) and one in south-western Europe (red line, 350.6 to 1.9 °E and 36.2 to 43.7 °N).
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Data and maps
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Maps and graphs
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Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100
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Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.
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Data and maps
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Maps and graphs
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Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100
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Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.
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Data and maps
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Maps and graphs
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Precipitation deficit in summer (JJA) and winter (DJF) for the periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2061–2080
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Precipitation deficit in summer (JJA) and winter (DJF) for the periods in the future 2021-2040, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080.
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Data and maps
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Maps and graphs