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Projected percentage change in passenger transport by mode and car ownership rate from 2000 to 2050
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International comparison
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Projected percentage change in freight transport by mode from 2000 to 2050
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Passenger transport demand - outlook from WBCSD (Outlook 017) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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Assessment created in 2007 If present policies and technological trends continue*, passenger transport will continue to grow worldwide, but more rapidly in the fast-growing economies of Eastern Europe, China and India. The modal shares are also expected to shift in a less sustainable direction. Air passenger transport is projected to be the fastest-growing mode. This and road passenger transport together will continue to be the biggest contributors to transport-related CO2 emissions.
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Passenger transport demand - outlook from WBCSD
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Freight transport demand - outlook from WBCSD (Outlook 027) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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If present policies and technological trends continue ( a ), freight transport is projected to continue to grow worldwide. In the Pan-European region the most significant growth is expected in Eastern Europe, while worldwide a more rapid increase is projected in the fast-growing economies of China and India. Worldwide road transport is expected to grow faster than rail transport. This is expected to lead to substantial shifts of the modal split of freight transport towards less sustainable modes. a) Projections are based on the reference case scenario. The reference case projects one possible set of future conditions, based on recent trends. Adjustments are made for expected deviations from recent trends due to factors such as existing policies, population projections (UNSTAT), income projections (IEA) and expected availability of new technologies. Expectations of other future changes in trends, such as saturation of vehicle ownership, are also incorporated. In general, no major new policies are assumed to be implemented beyond those already implemented in 2003, and no major technological breakthroughs (www.wbcsd.org/web/publications/mobility/smp-model-document.pdf).
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Freight transport demand - outlook from WBCSD
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Car ownership - outlook from WBCSD (Outlook 056) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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If present policies and technological trends continue*, passenger transport will continue to grow worldwide, but more rapidly in the fast-growing economies of Eastern Europe, China and India. The car ownership rates are also expected to increase significantly. (Assessment is created in 2007) * Projections are based on the reference case scenario. The reference case projects one possible set of future conditions, based on recent trends. Adjustments are made for expected deviations from recent trends due to factors such as existing policies, population projections (UNSTAT), income projections (IEA) and expected availability of new technologies. Expectations of other future changes in trends, such as saturation of vehicle ownership, are also incorporated. In general, no major new policies are assumed to be implemented beyond those already implemented in 2003, and no major technological breakthroughs. http://www.wbcsd.org/web/publications/mobility/smp-model-document.pdf
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Car ownership - outlook from WBCSD
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