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Global and European temperature (CSI 012/CLIM 001) - Assessment published Apr 2008
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WORLD
The increase in global and European mean temperature, observed over the last decades, is unusual in terms of both magnitude and rate of change.
The global (land and ocean) average temperature increase up to 2006 was 0.76 °C compared to pre-industrial. Eleven of the last 12 years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record (since 1850), and 2005 and 1998 were the warmest two years than any year on record.
The rate of global average temperature change has increased from 0.08°C per decade over last 100 years, to 0.13 °C per decade in last 50 years and 0.23°C in last decade.
The best estimates for projected global warming from 1990 to the end of this century range from 1.8 to 4.0°C (likely range 1.1 to 6.4°C) for different scenarios which do not assume that more action is taken to limit emissions.
EUROPE
Europe has warmed more than the global average. The increase for the European land area and European land & ocean area has been 1.16°C and 0.95°C, respectively, comparing the trend towards 2006 with pre-industrial times. The warmest year in European land has been 2000, closely followed by 2006 and 2002.
The temperature changes has been largest in South-Western, central and north-eastern Europe and in mountainous regions.
In the past 100 years, cold days, cold nights and frost have became less frequent, while extreme high temperature as hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have became more frequent.
The annual average temperature for Europe is projected to rise this century 1-5.5°C (best estimate) with the greatest warming over eastern Europe and Scandinavia in winter, and over south-western and Mediterranean Europe in summer.
For Europe as whole it is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent and cold events less frequent.
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Global and European temperature
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European precipitation (CLIM 002) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Annual precipitation trends in the 20th century showed an increase in northern Europe (10-40 %) and a decrease in some parts of southern Europe (up to 20 %). Mean winter precipitation has increased in most of western and northern Europe (20 to 40 %), whereas southern Europe and parts of central Europe were characterized by drier winters. Models project an increase in winter precipitation in northern Europe, whereas many parts of Europe may experience dryer summers. But there are uncertainties in the magnitude and geographical details of the changes.
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European precipitation
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Forest fire danger (CLIM 035) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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In a warmer climate, more severe fire weather is expected and, as a consequence, more area burned, more ignitions and longer fire seasons. Climate change will increase the fire potential during summer months, especially in southern and central Europe. The period during which fire danger exists will become longer as a result of climate change, with a probable increase in the frequency of extreme fire danger days in spring and autumn.
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Forest fire danger
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Forest growth (CLIM 034) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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In much of continental Europe, the majority of forests are now growing faster than in the early 20th century. A changing climate will favour certain species in some forest locations, while making conditions worse for others, leading to substantial shifts in vegetation distribution. The distribution and phenology of other plant and animal species (both pests and pollinators) are likely to change, leading to further alterations in competitive dynamics in forests that will be difficult to predict. Periods of drought and warm winters are increasing pest populations and further weakening forests.
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Forest growth
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Freshwater biodiversity and water quality (CLIM 021) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Several freshwater species have shifted their ranges to higher latitudes (northward movement) and altitudes in response to climate warming and other factors. There are European examples of changes in life cycle events (phenology) such as earlier spring phytoplankton bloom, appearance of clear-water phase, first day of flight and spawning of fish. In several European lakes, phytoplankton and zooplankton blooms are occurring one month earlier than 30-40 years ago. Climate change can cause enhanced phytoplankton blooms, favouring and stabilizing the dominance of harmful cyanobacteria in phytoplankton communities, resulting in increased threats to the ecological status of lakes and enhanced health risks, particularly in water bodies used for public water supply and bathing. This may counteract nutrient load reduction measures.
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Freshwater biodiversity and water quality
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Glaciers (CLIM 007) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The vast majority of glaciers in the European glacial regions are in retreat. Since 1850, glaciers in the European Alps have lost approximately two thirds of their volume, with clear acceleration since the 1980s. Glacier retreat is projected to continue. A 3 o C increase in average summer air temperature could reduce the existing glacier cover of the European Alps by some 80 %. With continuing climate change nearly all the smaller glaciers and one third of the overall glacier area in Norway are projected to disappear by 2100. Glacier retreat has serious consequences for river flow. It affects freshwater supply, river navigation, irrigation and power generation. It could cause natural hazards and damage to infrastructure.
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Global and European temperature (CSI 012/CLIM 001) - Assessment published Oct 2005
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The increase in global mean temperature observed over recent decades is unusual in terms of both magnitude and rate of change. The temperature increase up to 2004 was about 0.7 +/- 0.2 degrees C compared with pre-industrial levels. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global mean temperature is likely to increase by 1.4-5.8 degrees C between 1990 and 2100, assuming no climate change policies. The EU target might be exceeded between 2040 and 2070. The current global rate of change is about 0.18 +/- 0.05 degrees C per decade, a value probably exceeding any 100-year average rate of warming during the past 1 000 years.
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Global and European temperature
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Global and European temperature (CSI 012/CLIM 001) - Assessment published Mar 2009
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Global The global (land and ocean) average temperature increase up to 2008 was 0.7 o C compared to pre-industrial levels. The rate of global average temperature change has increased from 0.1 o C per decade over last 100 years, to 0.16 o C in last decade. The best estimates for projected global warming this century are a further rise in the global average temperature from 1.8 to 4.0 o C for different scenarios that assume no further/additional action to limit emissions. The EU global temperature target is projected to be exceeded between 2040 and 2060, for the all six IPCC scenarios. Europe Europe has warmed more than the global average. The annual average temperature for the European land area up to 2008 was 1.3 o C above pre-industrial levels, and for the combined land and ocean area 1 o C above. Considering the land area, nine out of the last 12 years were among the warmest years since 1850. High-temperature extremes like hot days, tropical nights, and heat waves have become more frequent, while low-temperature extremes (e.g. cold spells, frost days) have become less frequent in Europe. The average length of summer heat waves over Western Europe doubled over the period 1880 to 2005 and the frequency of hot days almost tripled. The annual average temperature is projected to rise this century by 1-5.5 o C (best estimate) with the largest warming over eastern and northern Europe in winter, and over south-western and Mediterranean Europe in summer. Hight temperature events accross Europe including night temperature extremes are projected to become more frequent, intense and longer this century, whereas winter temperature variability and the number of cold and frost extremes are projected to decrease further. The European regions projected to be most affected are the Iberian Peninsula, central Europe including the Alps, the eastern Adriatic seaboard, and southern Greece.
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Global and European temperature
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Global and European temperature (CSI 012/CLIM 001) - Assessment published Jun 2010
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Global The global (land and ocean) average temperature increase between 1850 and 2009 was 0.74 0 C using combined Hadley centre and CRU datasets compared to the 1850 - 1899 period average temperature and 0.84 0 C using GISS dataset compared to the 1880 - 1899 period average temperature. All used temperature records show the 2000s decade (2000 - 2009) was the warmest decade. The rate of global average temperature change has increased from around 0.06 0 C per decade over last 100 years, to 0.16 - 0.20 0 C in last decade. The best estimates for projected global warming in this century are a further rise in the global average temperature from 1.8 to 4.0 0 C for different scenarios that assume no further/additional action to limit emissions. The EU global temperature target is projected to be exceeded between 2040 and 2060, taking into account all six IPCC scenarios. Europe Europe has warmed more than the global average. The annual average temperature for the European land area up to 2009 was 1.3 0 C above 1850 - 1899 average temperature, and for the combined land and ocean area 1 0 C above. Considering the land area, nine out of the last 12 years were among the warmest years since 1850. High-temperature extremes like hot days, tropical nights, and heat waves have become more frequent, while low - temperature extremes (e.g. cold spells, frost days) have become less frequent in Europe. The average length of summer heat waves over Western Europe doubled over the period 1850 to 2009 and the frequency of hot days almost tripled. The annual average temperature in Europe is projected to rise in this century with the largest warming over eastern and northern Europe in winter, and over Southern Europe in summer. High temperature events across Europe including temperature extremes such as heat waves are projected to become more frequent, intense and longer this century, whereas winter temperature variability and the number of cold and frost extremes are projected to decrease further. According to the projections, the most affected European regions are going to be the Iberian and the Apennine Peninsula and south - eastern Europe.
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Global and European temperature
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Greenland ice sheet (CLIM 009) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The Greenland ice sheet changed in the 1990s from being in near mass balance to losing about 100 billion tonnes of ice per year. Ice losses may have doubled again by 2005. Accelerated flow of outlet glaciers to the sea accounts for more of the ice loss than melting. The contribution of ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet to global sea-level rise is estimated at 0.14-0.28 mm/year for the period 1993-2003 and has since increased. In the long term, melting ice sheets have the largest potential to increase sea level. No reliable predictions of the future of the ice sheets can yet be made; the processes causing the faster movement of the glaciers are poorly understood and there is a lack of long-term observations.
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