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Late lessons II Chapter 14 - Climate change: science and the precautionary priniple: Located in Publications › Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation › Chapters
Projected relative change of annual maximum daily mean wind speed between 1961-2000 and 2050 using different models: Data are calculated for 10 m height using the + 2 oC scenario for 2050 (IPCC-SRES A1B emission scenarios) and the reference climate (1961-2000) from three similar models (left) and one different model, MIROCHi (right).
Located in Data and maps › Maps and graphs
Average annual changes in fire danger level 1958-2006: Based on use of Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR)
Located in Data and maps › Maps and graphs
Percentage of Europe experiencing moderate drought conditions during the 20th century: Expressed as standardized precipitation indices (SPI) for time scales of 12 months
Located in Data and maps › Maps and graphs
Estimated global warming at which the onset of the events could occur versus their impact: Temperature increase (above 1990 level) at which the various events could occur and an estimate of their impact. The impact scale has subjective qualifications (‘minor’, ‘notable’, ‘major’ and ‘devastating’), which were assigned on the basis of the geographical scale (from ‘regional’ to ‘continental’ and ‘global’) and the character of the damages (‘light’, ‘moderate’, ‘heavy’ or ‘extreme’). The level of scientific understanding, as well as the understanding of possible impacts for most of these events is low. The shapes and sizes of the ovals do not represent uncertainties in impact and temperature onset of eventualities and these uncertainties may be significant.
Located in Data and maps › Maps and graphs
Climate change — time to act: Climate change is a real and current threat. To avoid major irreversible impacts on society and ecosystems, we must act now.
Located in Multimedia centre
Sustainable cooling helps fight global warming: In Europe, summer heat waves are becoming harder to bear. The demand for air conditioning is on the rise, especially in office buildings. Yet buildings alone represent 40% of the EU's energy consumption, and air conditioning accounts for a significant part of it. In addition, air conditioning produces greenhouse gas emissions, aggravating global warming and putting at risk European climate protection commitments. The solution: reduce the energy requirements of existing air conditioning systems and change the way buildings are designed and used to achieve sustainable summer comfort without active cooling.
Located in Environmental topics › Energy › Multimedia
Crop-yield variability (CLIM 032) - Assessment published Sep 2008: Climate and its variability are largely responsible for variations in crop suitability and productivity in Europe. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the variability of crop yields has increased as a consequence of extreme climatic events, e.g. the summer heat of 2003 and the spring drought of 2007. As a consequence of climatic change, such events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude, and crop yields to become more variable. Changes in farming practices and land management can act as risk-mitigating measures.
Located in Data and maps › Indicators › Crop-yield variability
Forest fire danger (CLIM 035) - Assessment published Sep 2008: In a warmer climate, more severe fire weather is expected and, as a consequence, more area burned, more ignitions and longer fire seasons. Climate change will increase the fire potential during summer months, especially in southern and central Europe. The period during which fire danger exists will become longer as a result of climate change, with a probable increase in the frequency of extreme fire danger days in spring and autumn.
Located in Data and maps › Indicators › Forest fire danger
Forest growth (CLIM 034) - Assessment published Sep 2008: In much of continental Europe, the majority of forests are now growing faster than in the early 20th century. A changing climate will favour certain species in some forest locations, while making conditions worse for others, leading to substantial shifts in vegetation distribution. The distribution and phenology of other plant and animal species (both pests and pollinators) are likely to change, leading to further alterations in competitive dynamics in forests that will be difficult to predict. Periods of drought and warm winters are increasing pest populations and further weakening forests.
Located in Data and maps › Indicators › Forest growth