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Urban flooding — impervious surfaces reduce the drainage of rain water and increase the risk for urban flooding
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The map shows the average soil sealing degree inside the UMZ of European core cities (core city defined in Urban Atlas / Urban Audit). Soil sealing degrees are represented in coloured dots. The city dots are overlaid onto a modelled map displaying the change in annual number of days with heavy rainfall between the reference periods 1961-1990 and 2071-2100.
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Coastal areas (CLIM 041) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Coastal flooding can lead to important losses. By 2100, the population in the main coastal European cities exposed to sea-level rise and associated impacts on coastal systems is expected to be about 4 million and the exposed assets more than EUR 2 trillion (without adaptation). Future projections of sea-level rise and associated impacts on coastal systems show potentially large increases in the risk of coastal flooding. These could have significant economic costs (without adaptation), with recent estimates in the range of 12 to 18 billion EUR/year for Europe in 2080 under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. The same estimates indicate that adaptation could significantly reduce this risk to around EUR 1 billion.
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Coastal areas
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Normalised losses from river flood disasters (CLIM 040) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Economic losses as a consequence of extreme flood events in recent years have been dramatic. Flood disasters increased significantly in Europe during the 1990s and the 2000s. The estimated losses in central Europe in 2002 were EUR 17.4 billion. This is more than the GDP of Bulgaria in that year. The cost of floods in the United Kingdom in summer 2007 is estimated at around EUR 4.3 billion. Although there is scientific evidence for a continuing intensification of the water cycle there is no homogeneous trend in extreme river flows/discharge in Europe. Analyses of long-term records of flood losses indicate that societal, environmental and economic factors clearly play an important role in the observed upward trends.
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Normalised losses from river flood disasters
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River floods (CLIM 017) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Although a significant trend in extreme river flows has not yet been observed, twice as many river flow maxima occurred in Europe between 1981 and 2000 than between 1961 and 1980. Since 1990, 259 major river floods have been reported in Europe, of which 165 have been reported since 2000. The rise in the reported number of flood events over recent decades results mainly from better reporting and land-use changes. Nevertheless, global warming is projected to intensify the hydrological cycle and increase the occurrence and frequency of flood events in large parts of Europe, although estimates of changes in flood frequency and magnitude remain highly uncertain. Projections suggest that warming will result in less snow accumulation during winter and therefore a lower risk of early spring flooding.
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River floods
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River flow (CLIM 016) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Over the 20th century, annual river flows showed an increasing trend in northern parts of Europe, with increases mainly in winter, and a slightly decreasing trend in southern parts of Europe. These changes are linked to observed changes in precipitation patterns and temperature. Annual river flow is projected to decrease in southern and south-eastern Europe and increase in northern Europe, but absolute changes remain uncertain. Climate change is projected to result in strong changes in the seasonality of river flows across Europe. Summer flows are projected to decrease in most of Europe, also in regions where annual flows will increase. Regions in southern Europe which already suffer most from water stress are projected to be particularly vulnerable to reductions in water resources due to climate change. This will result in increased competition for available resources.
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River flow
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Projected change in damage of river floods with a 100-year return period between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990
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Note: Model calculation using the IPCC SRES scenario A2 and NUTS2 level.
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Floods and health (CLIM 046) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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River and coastal flooding affect millions of people in Europe each year. They affect human health through drowning, heart attacks, injuries, infections, psychosocial consequences, and health effects of chemical hazards as well as disruption of services.
Observed increases in heavy precipitation and extreme coastal high-water events have led to more river and coastal flooding in many European regions.
Increases in health risks associated with river and coastal flooding are projected in many regions of Europe due to projected increases in extreme precipitation events and sea level.
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Floods and health
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River flow (CLIM 016) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Long-term trends in river flows due to climate change are difficult to detect due to substantial inter annual and decadal variability as well as modifications to natural water flows arising from water abstractions, man-made reservoirs and land-use changes. Nevertheless, increased river flows during winter and lower river flows during summer have been recorded since the 1960s in large parts of Europe.
Climate change is projected to result in strong changes in the seasonality of river flows across Europe. Summer flows are projected to decrease in most of Europe, including in regions where annual flows are projected to increase.
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River flow
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Percentage of the urban area that would be flooded — share of cities per class per country
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The diagram shows the proportion of cities per country that fall in a particular class regarding the percentage of potentially flooded area.
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Estimated number of people and gross value affected by 100-year flood events in the ‘Economy First’ scenario for the 2050s
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Number of people (a) and amount of manufacturing gross value added (GVA), (b) affected by 100-year flood events in the 'Economy First' scenario for the 2050s. Calculations based on median ensemble results from LISFLOOD linked to population
projections from SCENES scenarios.
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