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Figure Projections of extreme temperatures as represented by the combined number of hot summer (June-August) days (TMAX>35°C) and tropical nights (TMIN>20°C)
Maps show changes in extreme temperature for two future periods, relative to 1961-1990. Extreme temperatures are represented by the combined number of hot summer (June-August) days (TMAX>35°C) and tropical nights (TMIN>20°C). All projections are the average of 5 Regional Climate Model simulations of the EU-ENSEMBLES project using the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the periods 1961-90, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (Fischer and Schär, 2010).
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Figure Observed global fossil fuel CO2 emissions compared with six scenarios from the IPCC
IPCC scenarios shown are from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC, 2000). Past emission data are from the Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA)
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Figure Observed and projected global mean surface temperatures from 1900, for three IPCC scenarios and the 'Year 2000 constant concentration' pathway
If global greenhouse gas emissions would not be reduced, the 2°C target will be exceeded towards the middle of the 21st century. The horizontal 2°C target line takes into account warming of about 0.6 °C from pre-industrial to 1990. “Likely” ranges in average 2090-2099 warming for all six IPCC scenarios are shown on the right
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Figure Observed and projected change in sea level 1970–2008, relative to the sea level in 1990
The solid lines are based on observations smoothed to remove the effects of interannual variability (light lines connect data points). Data in most recent years are obtained via satellite based sensors. The envelope of IPCC (2001) projections is shown for comparison; this includes the broken lines as individual projections and the shading as the uncertainty around the projections.
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Figure Projected global average sea-level rise, 1990–2100
Past observed and projected sea level rise from various information sources
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Figure Arctic summer sea-ice age 1981–2000 compared with 2007, 2008, and 2009
These images compare ice age, a proxy for ice thickness, in 2007, 2008, 2009, and the 1981–2000 average. 2009 saw an increase in second-year ice over 2008. At the end of summer 2009, 32% of the ice cover was second-year ice and three-year and older ice were 19% of the total ice cover, the lowest in the satellite record.
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Figure Observed and projected Arctic September sea-ice extent, 1900–2100
Observed and projected Arctic September sea-ice extent
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Figure Melting area 1979–2008 and mass change 2003–2009 of the Greenland ice sheet
Note: The maps on the left show the area of the Greenland ice sheet with at least one day of surface melting in summer. The diagram on the left shows the cumulated melt area, which is defined as the annual total sum of every daily ice sheet melt area. For example, if a particular area is melting on 20 days in a given year, it is counted 20 times.
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Figure text/texmacs Potential climatic tipping elements
Tipping elements are regional-scale features of the climate that could exhibit threshold-type behaviour in response to human-driven climate change – that is, a small amount of climate change at a critical point could trigger an abrupt and/or irreversible shift in the tipping element. The consequences of such shifts for societies and ecosystems are likely to be severe. Question marks indicate systems whose status as tipping elements is particularly uncertain. There are other potential tipping elements that are missing from the map, for example shallow-water coral reefs (Veron et al. 2009) threatened in part by ocean acidification
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Figure Troff document Potential tipping elements with direct impacts on Europe
Colours show population density
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