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National 2020 GHG emission limits under the ESD relative to 2005 emissions levels
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Actual progress of the EU‑15 towards its burden-sharing target in absolute and relative terms
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The X-axis (0 % line) corresponds to the achievement of the EU-15 reduction target under the Kyoto Protocol (– 8 % compared to base-year emissions).
Positive values correspond to contributions to the achievement of the EU-15 Kyoto target, while negative values represent shortfalls.
The difference between target and GHG emissions concerns the sectors not covered by the EU ETS, which represent the right emissions and target to consider for the assessment of actual progress towards Kyoto targets.
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Progress to greenhouse gas emission targets (CSI 011) - Assessment published Oct 2012
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At the end of 2011, almost all European countries were on track towards their Kyoto targets for 2008–2012. The EU‑15 is on track towards this 8 % reduction target, compared to base-year levels under the Kyoto Protocol.
Projections from EU Member States indicate that their emissions outside the EU ETS will be lower than their national targets set under the Climate and Energy Package. Total EU emissions are projected to fall slightly until 2020. With the current set of national domestic measures in place, Member States are expected to reach a level in 2020 which is 19 % below 1990 levels and close to the 20 % reduction target.
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Progress to greenhouse gas emission targets
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GHG emission targets in Europe under the KP (2008–2012) relative to base‑year emissions (absolute and relative)
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The final emission levels allocated to the EU and each Member State were established after completion of the reviews of the initial reports pursuant to Article 8 of the KP in 2008. To account for Denmark's exceptionally low base-year emissions compared to other years, Denmark received 5 million AAUs from the Union registry for the first commitment period under the KP
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Development of sectoral emissions 2008–2011 compared to 2008 levels
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The ETS sector category '99. Other activities opted-in' is not included, as it is heterogeneous and includes installations with unclear sector definition. Figures for the sector are reported in Table 4.4 in the report
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EUA future prices 2008–2012
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The EUA prices reflect daily over-the-counter (OTC) closing prices for EUAs to be delivered at the end of 2012
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Trends and projections of EU total GHG emissions, 1990–2030
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PRIMES/GAINS projections recalibrated by EEA, based on 2010 GHG emissions.
Member State projections do not include international aviation, while the PRIMES/GAINS scenarios do.
2025 and 2030 projections are based on information provided by 12 Member States. For other Member States, 2030 projections were gap filled using the 2020–2025 and 2020–2030 relative trends available from the Commission's scenarios based on the PRIMES and GAINS models.
The gaps observed between the end of historic trends and the start of projected trends are due to the fact that the absolute projection data was not calibrated on the latest 2011 GHG proxy inventory data.
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Total, ETS and non‑ETS emission trends in the EU‑15 compared to their respective targets, 2008–2011
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Absolute and relative gaps between average 2008–2011 non‑ETS emissions and Kyoto target for non‑ETS sectors
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* 'EU‑15 (no overachievement)' corresponds to the situation of the EU‑15 where all surplus Kyoto units from target overachievement in the EU‑15 are not taken into account, to reflect the possibility that Member States with a surplus could use any remaining allowances for their own purposes and not necessarily make them available to compensate for Member States with a shortfall.
Subsequent to the effect of allocation of allowances to the EU ETS, the target and annual emissions are those of the sectors not covered by the EU ETS. The target for non-ETS sectors corresponds to the difference between the initial permissible emissions and the amount of allowances allocated under the EU ETS.
A positive value indicates a country for which average 2008–2011 non‑ETS emissions were lower than the annual target.
The assessment is based on average 2008–2011 emissions and the planned use of flexible mechanisms, as well as the expected effect of LULUCF activities.
EU‑15 values are the sum of the gaps/surplus for the 15 EU Member States party to Burden-Sharing Agreement.
For Croatia, Iceland and Switzerland, total emissions are used as they have currently no installations under the EU ETS.
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Sectoral trends and projections of EU GHG emissions
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Solid lines represent historic emissions up to 2011 and WEM projections from 2011 onwards. Dashed lines represent WAM projections.
The gaps observed between the end of historic trends and the start of projected trends are due to the fact that absolute projection data were not calibrated on the latest 2011 GHG proxy inventory data.
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