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Storms (CLIM 005) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Storm location, frequency and intensity have shown considerable variability across Europe over the past century, making it difficult to identify clear trends. A recent reanalysis suggests that storminess has increased over the past century in northern and north-western Europe but this finding is not yet robust.
Climate change projections for storms in the North Atlantic and Europe region show no clear consensus in either the direction of movement or the intensity of storm activity. However, a recent study involving 20 climate models projects enhanced extreme wind speeds over northern parts of central and western Europe, and a decrease in extreme wind speeds in southern Europe.
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Storms
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Trends in the extreme wind speeds in the period 1871-2008 based on reanalysis
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Trends in the annual 95th percentile of daily maximum wind speeds in the 20th century reanalysis data set (ensemble mean) during the period 1871–2008.
The trend is given in the units of the interannual standard deviation and plotted only when significant. The coloured circles indicate trends in the number of
'gale days' (an index that represents the number of extremely windy days) over the period at the specific locations.
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Projected changes in extreme wind speed based on GCM and RCM ensembles
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Ensemble mean of changes in extreme wind speed (defined as the 98th percentile of daily maximum wind speed) for A1B (2071–2100) relative to 1961–2000. Left: based on 9 GCMs. Right: based on 11 RCMs. Coloured areas indicate the magnitude of change (unit: m s−1), statistical significance above 0.95 is shown by black dots.
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Precipitation extremes (CLIM 004) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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There are no widespread significant trends in either the number of consecutive dry or wet days across Europe.
Heavy precipitation events are likely to become more frequent in most parts of Europe. The changes are strongest in Scandinavia in winter and in northern and eastern central Europe in summer.
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Precipitation extremes
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Trends in consecutive dry days and consecutive wet days
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High confidence in a long-term trend is shown by a black dot (if the 5th to 95th percentile slopes are of the same sign). Boxes which have a thick outline contain at least three stations. Area averaged annual time series of percentage changes and
trend lines are shown below each map for one area in northern Europe (blue line, 5.6 to 16.9 °E and 56.2 to 66.2 °N) and one in south-western Europe (red line, 350.6 to 1.9 °E and 36.2 to 43.7 °N).
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