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Current progress towards EU‑15 Kyoto target
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Current progress towards EU‑15 Kyoto target
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Projected contributions of the Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks on the overall change of assigned amounts
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Projected contributions of the Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks on the overall change of assigned amounts
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Progress to greenhouse gas emission targets (CSI 011) - Assessment published Mar 2009
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Projections from EU Member States for 2010 indicate that the EU-15 will meet its Kyoto target by a large margin through further implementation of existing and additional measures, and use of carbon sinks and of Kyoto mechanisms. If all the projected reductions were achieved, the EU-15 could reach a level of emissions 11.3 % lower than base-year emissions, therefore overachieving its - 8 % Kyoto target by 3.3 percentage points. Furthermore, the EU emission trading scheme will also bring important further reductions, which are not yet fully accounted for by Member States in their projections. The EU-27 does not have a Kyoto target. Twelve EU-15 Member States project they will achieve their individual targets. All ten new Member States with a target expect to meet their target (Cyprus and Malta do not have a Kyoto target). Croatia, Iceland and Norway project that they will meet their targets, but not Switzerland. Turkey had not ratified the Kyoto Protocol as of June 2008 and thus had no Kyoto target.
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Progress to greenhouse gas emission targets
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Greenhouse gas emission trends (CSI 010) - Assessment published Mar 2009
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According to first estimates by EEA for the year 2010, EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.4 % compared to 2009 (with a margin of error of +/- 0.3 %). This was due to the return to economic growth in many countries and a colder winter leading to an increased heating demand. However, the increase in emissions was contained by a move from coal to natural gas and the sustained strong growth in renewable energy generation. EU‑27 emissions were 15.5 % below the 1990 level. This 2010 increase follows a 7 % drop in 2009 (compared to 2008), largely due to the economic recession and the growth of renewable energy generation. Between 1990 and 2010, greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-27 decreased in all main emitting sectors except in the transport sector, where they increased considerably. In the EU-15, CO 2 emissions from public electricity and heat production also increased.
In the EU-15, estimated 2010 GHG emissions increased by 2.3 % (+/– 0.7) compared to 2009. This implies that EU‑15 greenhouse gas emissions were approximately 10.6 % below the 1990 level in 2010 (1) or 10.7 % below the base-year level. The European Union remains well on track to achieve its Kyoto Protocol target (an 8% reduction of its greenhouse gas emissions compared to base-year level, to be achieved during the period from 2008 to 2012). 2010 emissions of all EU-12 Member States that have a Kyoto target were well below their Kyoto target, except in Slovenia.
A detailed assessment of progress towards Kyoto targets and 2020 targets in Europe is provided in EEA's 2011 report on Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections .
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Greenhouse gas emission trends
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Projections of EU-15 and EU-27 emissions during the Kyoto commitment period
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Atmospheric concentration of Methane (ppb)
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The figure shows the global atmospheric concentration of methane up to 2010.
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Decomposition of current progress achieved by European countries towards their Kyoto targets by the end of 2010
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A positive sign signifies a favourable contribution towards target achievement.
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Actual (2008 and 2009) and expected (2008–2012) average annual emissions and removals from LULUCF activities
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A positive value indicates that the country has/expects net removals from LULUCF activities, taking into account the caps for forest management. It does not necessarily mean that the country intends to actually use RMUs to achieve its Kyoto commitment. The estimate of the actual effects of LULUCF activities might change in future years if better data becomes available.
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Actual progress of the EU‑15 towards its burden-sharing target in absolute and relative terms
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The X-axis (0 % line) corresponds to the achievement of the EU-15 reduction target under the Kyoto Protocol (– 8 % compared to base-year emissions).
Positive values correspond to contributions to the achievement of the EU-15 Kyoto target, while negative values represent shortfalls.
The difference between target and GHG emissions concerns the sectors not covered by the EU ETS, which represent the right emissions and target to consider for the assessment of actual progress towards Kyoto targets.
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Difference between verified emissions and caps in all 30 countries participating in the EU ETS, 2008–2010
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A positive sign indicates that verified emissions (2008, 2009, 2010 and 2008/2010 average) were higher than available allowances (i.e. the EU ETS helps the Member State to reach its Kyoto target). A negative sign indicates that verified emissions were lower than available allowances (i.e. the EU ETS does not help the Member State to reach its Kyoto target).
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