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National 2020 GHG emission limits under the ESD relative to 2005 emissions levels
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Progress to greenhouse gas emission targets (CSI 011) - Assessment published Oct 2012
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At the end of 2011, almost all European countries were on track towards their Kyoto targets for 2008–2012. The EU‑15 is on track towards this 8 % reduction target, compared to base-year levels under the Kyoto Protocol.
Projections from EU Member States indicate that their emissions outside the EU ETS will be lower than their national targets set under the Climate and Energy Package. Total EU emissions are projected to fall slightly until 2020. With the current set of national domestic measures in place, Member States are expected to reach a level in 2020 which is 19 % below 1990 levels and close to the 20 % reduction target.
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Progress to greenhouse gas emission targets
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Development of sectoral emissions 2008–2011 compared to 2008 levels
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The ETS sector category '99. Other activities opted-in' is not included, as it is heterogeneous and includes installations with unclear sector definition. Figures for the sector are reported in Table 4.4 in the report
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EUA future prices 2008–2012
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The EUA prices reflect daily over-the-counter (OTC) closing prices for EUAs to be delivered at the end of 2012
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Trends and projections of EU total GHG emissions, 1990–2030
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PRIMES/GAINS projections recalibrated by EEA, based on 2010 GHG emissions.
Member State projections do not include international aviation, while the PRIMES/GAINS scenarios do.
2025 and 2030 projections are based on information provided by 12 Member States. For other Member States, 2030 projections were gap filled using the 2020–2025 and 2020–2030 relative trends available from the Commission's scenarios based on the PRIMES and GAINS models.
The gaps observed between the end of historic trends and the start of projected trends are due to the fact that the absolute projection data was not calibrated on the latest 2011 GHG proxy inventory data.
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Total, ETS and non‑ETS emission trends in the EU‑15 compared to their respective targets, 2008–2011
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Sectoral trends and projections of EU GHG emissions
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Solid lines represent historic emissions up to 2011 and WEM projections from 2011 onwards. Dashed lines represent WAM projections.
The gaps observed between the end of historic trends and the start of projected trends are due to the fact that absolute projection data were not calibrated on the latest 2011 GHG proxy inventory data.
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Historic GHG trends and emission projections in EEA member countries that are not EU Member States, and Croatia, 1990–2020
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2012 information on GHG projections available from Switzerland, 2011 information on GHG projections available from Norway, 2010 information available from Croatia and Liechtenstein, 2007 information available from Turkey and 2006 information available for Iceland.
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Projected gaps between 2020 GHG emissions and national targets in sectors not covered by the EU ETS
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Progress calculated based on domestic emissions only, without accounting for possible use of flexibility options. The 2020 targets and 2005 non‑ETS emissions are all consistent with 2013–2020 ETS scope, i.e. they take into account the extension of the ETS scope in 2013 and the unilateral inclusion of installation in 2008–2012. Relative gaps are calculated as a ratio between the difference (projected non‑ETS 2020 emissions – estimates of 2020 targets under the ESD) and EEA estimates of 2005 non‑ETS emissions consistent with 2013–2020 ETS scope
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Gap between average non‑ETS 2008–2011 emissions and Kyoto targets without the use of carbon sinks and flexible mechanisms
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A positive value indicates that average 2008-to-2011 emissions in the non‑ETS sectors were lower than the average annual target, taking into account the effect of allowances attributed to the EU ETS and without use of carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms.
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