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Agrophenology (CLIM 031) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Flowering of several perennial crops has advanced by about two days per decade in recent decades.
Changes in timing of crop phenology are affecting crop production and the relative performance of different crop species and varieties.
The shortening of crop growth phases in many crops is expected to continue. The shortening of the grain filling phase of cereals and oilseed crops can be particularly detrimental to yield.
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Agrophenology
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Rate of change of the meteorological water balance
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This figure shows the rate of change of the ‘water balance’.
The map provides an estimate increase (red in map) or decrease (blue in map) of the volume of water required from irrigation assuming that all other factors are unchanged and given that there is an irrigation demand.
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Change of flowering date for winter wheat
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This figure shows the rate of change of the flowering date for winter wheat. The flowering date is defined as the day at which a modelization of the winter wheat reaches a development state of 100 in a scale 0 - 200 defined for the WOFOST growth model (Van Keulen H, Wolf J (1986) Modelling of agricultural production: weather soils and crops, Simulation monographs. Pudoc, Wageningen). The map shows the yearly change rate in days per year calculated for the period January 1975 - December 2010.
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Irrigation water requirement (CLIM 033) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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In the Iberian Peninsula and Italy, an increase in the volume of water required for irrigation from 1975 to 2010 has been estimated, whereas parts of south-eastern Europe have recorded a decrease.
The projected increases in temperature will lead to increased evapotranspiration rates, thereby increasing crop water requirements across Europe.
The impact of increasing water requirements is expected to be most acute in southern Europe, where the suitability for rain-fed agriculture is projected to decrease and irrigation requirements are projected to increase.
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Irrigation water requirement
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Growing season for agricultural crops (CLIM 030) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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The thermal growing season of a number of agricultural crops in Europe has lengthened by 11.4 days on average from 1992 to 2008. The delay in the end of the growing season was more pronounced than the advance of its start.
The growing season is projected to increase further throughout most of Europe due to earlier onset of growth in spring and later senescence in autumn.
The projected lengthening of the thermal growing season would allow a northward expansion of warm-season crops to areas that were not previously suitable.
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Growing season for agricultural crops
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Change in the number of frost-free days per year
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This figure shows the rate of change in the growing season length (defined as the number of frost-free days per year) during the period January 1975 – December 2010.
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