Projected changes in annual precipitation in percentages under A1B scenario, multi-model ensemble mean for the time periods 2021-2050 relative to 1961-1990 mean. Map presents changes using ensemble mean of several regional climate models (RCMs), run by different climate modelling communities in the frame of the EU FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES (Contract number 505539). Data are presented as changes in relative terms (according to 1961-1990 period) in spatial resolution of approximately 25 km.
By 2100, global temperature change is expected to be well above the long-term sustainable objective set in the 6th EAP (bearing in mind the inherent scientific and analytical uncertainty characterising the assessment of climate change impacts).
Population growth in Europe differs widely from sub-regionally. Population within the European Economic Area (EEA) is projected to remain stable until 2050 while population of EECCA countries is projected to drop by as much as 13,6% from 2000 to 2050.The South-Eastern European region is expected to grow with of 31,3% during the projected period. Worldwide population is expected to reach over 9 billion by 2050. India is projected to contribute 58,5% to the global population increase and become the most populated nation in the world, while population in China is expected to grow by 10,9% from 2000 to 2050. Both the USA and Canada see continued growth with 41,3 and 39,3 percent respectively for the projected period.
By the late 21st century, distributions of European plant species are projected to have shifted several hundred kilometres to the north, forests are likely to have contracted in the south and expanded in the north, and 60 % of mountain plant species may face extinction. The rate of change will exceed the ability of many species to adapt, especially as landscape fragmentation may restrict movement. A combination of the rate of climate change, habitat fragmentation and other obstacles will impede the movement of many animal species, possibly leading to a progressive decline in European biodiversity. Distribution changes are projected to continue. Suitable climatic conditions for Europe's breeding birds are projected to shift nearly 550 km northeast by the end of the century, with the average range size shrinking by 20 %. Projections for 120 native European mammals suggest that up to 9 % (assuming no migration) risk extinction during the 21st century.
By the late 21st century, distributions of European plant species are projected to have shifted several hundred kilometres to the north, forests are likely to have contracted in the south and ...
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